From time to time here on Blue Jays Way we will look back at the previous day’s game and review the decisions that were made at key moments. In last night’s game there were two crucial at bats in the bottom of the eighth inning. With Andrew Bailey on the mound for the Red Sox, Rajai Davis hit a one-out double and Colby Rasmus followed with a walk. This brought Adam Lind to the plate. Given the players available on the bench and the fact that Bailey throws right-handed, sending the lefty Lind to the dish in this situation seems like the logical move. Lind flew out to centrefield and Davis tagged up and took third base, bringing up Maicer Izturis’ spot in the lineup with runners on first and third and two out. As you can see on the Leverage Index section of the graph below, the at-bats by Lind and Izturis were the key moments in the game. For those not familiar with Leverage Index, it is used to measure the importance of a situation depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base. The average Leverage Index is 1.0 and 10% of all game situations have a Leverage Index greater than 2.0. The Leverage Index for Lind’s at bat was 5.18 and the Leverage Index for Izturis’ was 5.12.
Source: FanGraphs
Given the importance of the situation, it’s reasonable to wonder whether John Gibbons should have pinch hit for Izturis. With the team carrying 8 relievers (a decision many have rightfully questioned) their bench is quite short and Mark DeRosa had already been taken out of the game in favour of Adam Lind, but Jose Bautista was still on the bench. Bautista is nursing what we’re told is a minor ankle injury sustained on Thursday. Before the game Gibbons said that he didn’t anticipate using Bautista as a pinch hitter, “but you never know”, implying that the slugger was capable of playing in that role. Sending Bautista to bat would have meant that Edwin Encarnacion would have had to enter the game at third base and the Jays would have been forced to give up the designated hitter and send their pitcher to the plate the next time Izturis’ spot in the lineup came up, but that would have been unlikely to happen unless the game went to extra innings.
So, should Gibbons have gone to Bautista in that situation? Let’s look at the numbers. Excluding sacrifice bunts and sacrifice flys, Maicer Izturis has come to the plate against a right-handed pitcher 2,178 times in his career and has hit safely 543 of those times, for a 24.9% success rate. Izturis has also walked or been hit by a pitch in 199 of those at bats (9.1%). In this situation a walk would have loaded the bases for Jose Reyes whose career on base percentage against right-handed pitchers is .338. So, in addition to a 24.9% chance that Izturis drives in a run himself there was a 3.1% (9.1% x .338) chance of him walking and Reyes driving in a run, thus the Jays had a 28.0% chance of scoring by allowing Izturis to hit.
I think most people would agree that Jose Bautista has been a different hitter over the last three years and that those numbers are more representative of the player Bautista is today than his career numbers are. During that time frame Bautista has 1,347 plate appearances (excluding sacrifices) against righties and has collected 302 hits (22.4%) and reached base on a walk or been hit by a pitch 245 times (18.2%). Factoring in Reyes’ .338 OBP once again we see that the Jays would have slightly improved their chances of scoring to 28.6% (22.4% + 18.2% x .338) by sending Bautista to the plate.
Considering the relatively small difference, Bautista’s health, and the possibility of having to give up the DH I think Gibbons decision to let Izturis hit in this situation can be defended, but it will be interesting to watch how the team chooses to manage their bench in games for the rest of the year and how they manage their roster once Brett Lawrie is ready to return.
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